Armed drones could be a game changer for Ukraine. But there’s a catch.- POLITICO

The Gray Eagle would be a significant leap for the embattled Ukrainians, because it can fly for up to 30 hours, gather vast amounts of surveillance data and fire precision Hellfire missiles. | Business Wire via Getty Images

With help from Joseph Gedeon, Connor O’Brien, Lawrence Ukenye, Daniel Lippman, Lee Hudson and Matt Berg 

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The Biden administration is wrestling with logistical and training issues as it weighs selling armed drones to Ukraine, two U.S. officials tell our own LARA SELIGMAN and PAUL MCLEARY, as leaders in Kyiv plead for the advanced weaponry amid Russian battlefield advances.

Even if the sale of four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones goes through in the coming weeks, Ukrainian soldiers likely wouldn’t be able to use the systems on the front lines for several more weeks — and maybe months — two Defense Department officials and experts said.

The potential sale, which was first reported by Reuters, is not yet final, and it could still be blocked by Congress or halted by a last-minute policy change. The issue continues to be discussed at the Pentagon and White House, as new shipments of weapons and military aid are being planned and prepared for the ongoing battle in the Donbas.

The possible sale of the Gray Eagles, the Army’s version of the better-known Reaper, represents a new chapter in arms deliveries to Ukraine and could open the door to sending Kyiv even more sophisticated systems. The Gray Eagle would be a significant leap for the embattled Ukrainians, because it can fly for up to 30 hours, gather vast amounts of surveillance data and fire precision Hellfire missiles. The system also is reusable, unlike the smaller Switchblade loitering munitions the U.S. has already sent to the front lines.

But training to operate the system typically takes months to complete, depending on what sensors and weapons packages are included, the two DoD officials said. The Gray Eagles are much more complex to operate than the smaller, short-range drones the Ukrainians currently operate, explained DAN GETTINGER, an expert with the Vertical Flight Society.

Gray Eagles also require extensive ground infrastructure, including landing strips, and secure communications links and equipment, Gettinger said. It’s not clear where Ukraine would base the drones or the pilots, but the operators could theoretically fly them from outside Ukraine if they have access to satellite communications, he said.

The U.S. has over 200 MQ-1s in storage that could go to Ukraine, said DAVID DEPTULA, dean of the Mitchell Institute of Aerospace Power Studies and a retired Air Force three-star general. He advocates declaring the drones excess to U.S. military needs and sending them to Kyiv “as soon as possible, along with the appropriate weapons to arm them.”

“The gradualism that the Biden administration is following in arming Ukraine is hindering their defense,” Deptula said.

It’s possible the training could be condensed for Ukraine’s urgent needs. General Atomics manufactures Gray Eagles and company spokesperson C. MARK BRINKLEY insisted the training could be completed within weeks.

“The simple answer? Very quickly. Weeks, not months. The Ukrainians are very committed and very talented,” Brinkley said.

The fact that the deal is a foreign military sale, not a transfer from the presidential drawdown fund, also could hold up the process. Foreign military sales require official requests and are subject to approval by the State Department. They also require notification to Congress, which has 30 days to object.

Pentagon spokesperson Lt. Col. ANTON SEMELROTH declined to comment on the possible Gray Eagle sale. “We have nothing to announce, and we are not going to get into potential training timelines on pre-decisional issues,” he said.

The reality is, however, that Ukraine needs additional capability — now. In a tweet Monday, MYKHAILO PODOLYAK, an adviser to Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, said Kyiv needs “heavy weapons parity” to end the war, specifically listing “1000 drones” as a key requirement.

Kyiv is pleading for additional aid as Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN is scheduled to huddle with his international counterparts Wednesday during the NATO defense ministerial in Brussels. In what will be the third meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group, defense ministers from NATO and other allies will discuss how best to help the Ukrainian military — and likely make an announcement about new aid packages.

The meeting comes at a critical time in the fight, as the war has shifted even since the last meeting in late May. Russian forces are making incremental but steadier gains in the Donbas, and Ukrainian officials have said their troops are being significantly outgunned by the long-range and more numerous Russian artillery pieces shipped to the front.

Officials in Kyiv, who have been quiet about their own losses in the war, have said in recent days that they are losing 100 to 200 troops a day to Russian shelling, and the disparity between the volume of artillery they can fire back is withering. “People say four to one, but the Ukrainians are telling the Pentagon it’s more like eight to one or 10 to one,” in favor of the Russians, one person who advises the Ukrainian government told POLITICO on the condition of anonymity.

The meeting Wednesday in Brussels will be “an important opportunity to gather our growing group of partners from around the world to ensure that we’re providing Ukraine what Ukraine needs right now … in order to defend against Russia’s unjustified and unprovoked assault, and to look ahead to ensure that we’re helping Ukraine to build and sustain robust defenses so that Ukraine will be able to defend itself in the coming months and years,” Austin told reporters traveling with him Monday.

WH MAKES MIDDLE EAST TRIP — AND MBS MEETING — OFFICIAL: President JOE BIDEN will travel to the Middle East from July 13-16, making stops in Israel, the West Bank and then Saudi Arabia, per our own MYAH WARD and Quint. A senior administration official said Biden will meet with more than a dozen counterparts during the trip, and that his stop in Jeddah could shape the administration’s goals in the region for the rest of the year and 2023.

Following the White House’s announcement of Biden’s travel plans this morning, attention immediately turned to a potential meeting between the American president and Saudi Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN — who ordered the murder of journalist JAMAL KHASHOGGI in 2018, according to an intelligence report released by the Biden administration.

JOHN KIRBY, strategic communications coordinator at the National Security Council, suggested it’s likely that Biden will come face-to-face with bin Salman, the country’s de facto ruler, in bilateral sessions with King Salman’s team. “Of course, the crown prince is on that team, so I suspect he will certainly see the crown prince in the context of these meetings,” Kirby told MSNBC.

“Obviously, human rights will come up as a part of that discussion” with Saudi officials, Kirby added. But Kirby declined to commit to Biden raising the subject of Khashoggi’s killing with the crown prince, saying: “I’m not going to get ahead of individual discussions that the president’s going to have.”

White House press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE seemed even more certain about Biden speaking with bin Salman, telling reporters aboard Air Force One: “Yes, we can expect the president to see the crown prince.” Pressed on whether Biden would address Khashoggi’s killing, Jean-Pierre said the U.S. is “not overlooking any conduct that happened before the president took office.”

“It’s important to also emphasize that while we recollaborate relationships, we are not looking to rupture relationships, as well,” Jean-Pierre said. “But human rights … is something that the president brings up with many leaders and plans to do so.”

Meanwhile, a statement from the Saudi Embassy in Washington, D.C., said that Biden “will meet” with bin Salman, and that the two leaders “will hold official talks” on various topics.

GRAIN FROM UKRAINE, BY TRAIN: Biden unveiled today the makings of a plan to avert a global food crisis brought on by Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, which is trapping some 20 million tons of grain in the country. Speaking at an AFL-CIO event in Philadelphia, he said he’s working with European allies on a scheme to export the grain by rail.

The problem is that Ukraine’s railway operates on different tracks than the rest of Europe’s, which means the trains can’t move directly across the border, Biden said. The idea is to build temporary silos on Ukraine’s borders, including in Poland, in order to transfer the grain.

“We can transfer it from those cars into those silos into cars in Europe and get it out to the ocean and get it across the world,” Biden said — though he cautioned that “it’s taking time.”

Russia’s blockade has sparked concerns about a massive food crisis, as Ukraine is the world’s fourth-largest grain exporter. Already, the conflict has caused widespread food shortages and soaring prices, which are hitting countries in Africa and the Middle East particularly hard.

‘HUGE LAG TIME’ TO GET TECH TO UKRAINE: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy isn’t the only one who’s frustrated that cutting-edge U.S. military gear isn’t making its way to the battlefield, per our own BRYAN BENDER and LEE HUDSON.

Thousands of American-made weapons are flowing into Ukraine, but the Defense Department’s acquisition system still isn’t pivoting quickly enough to get the latest commercial gear to the front lines, according to defense industry executives, lobbyists and some of the Pentagon’s own technologists.

Congress approved more than $20 billion in military assistance to arm Ukraine last month as part of a $40 billion aid package to keep the military equipped through September.

Yet even as traditional defense weaponry — missiles, vehicles and ammunition — continue to arrive in Ukraine, there is growing frustration that the process of sending emerging technology is not moving at the “speed of war” that Defense Secretary Austin has said is necessary to help Ukraine fight Russia.

“Industry can move very quickly when given a clear signal,” said Aerospace Industries Association President and CEO ERIC FANNING, a former secretary of the Army. “It’s usually the government that’s the slow side of the partnership.”

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NUCLEAR SPENDING SWELLS: Even before Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine would begin, global nuclear powers have boosted their spending from $76 billion in 2020 to an estimated $82.4 billion in 2021, according to a new report by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons.

The U.S. is the biggest contributor to the budget, spending $44.2 billion in 2021 — $5 billion more than the year prior. Still, the American arsenal isn’t the largest; Russia holds the trophy with 5,977 nuclear weapons in its back pocket, compared to 5,428 held by the U.S. China has the second-largest nuclear budget in 2021 at $11.7 billion and holds 350 nuclear weapons.

The report traces the lion’s share of nuclear production to a handful of companies, where compensation for new nuclear weapon-related contracts doubled to at least $30.2 billion in 2021, from $14.8 billion a year prior. Honeywell International and Northrop Grumman accounted for about one-third of all income awarded related to those contracts.

“This spending failed to deter a war in Europe,” the report states, “and squandered valuable resources that could be better used to address current security challenges.”

Despite a U.N. treaty meant to prohibit nuclear weapons entering into force in 2021, there are currently nine countries with such weapons: the U.S., China, Russia, the U.K., France, India, Israel, Pakistan and North Korea.

The first meeting on nuclear weapons prohibition will take place in a few short weeks in Vienna, where Iran says it’ll attend to revive its own nuclear deal, per AFP.

NAVALNY NOWHERE TO BE FOUND: KIRA YARMYSH, a spokesperson for imprisoned Kremlin critic ALEXEI NAVALNY, tweeted today that the prominent Russian dissident’s whereabouts are currently unknown, per POLITICO Europe’s LUANNA MUNIZ. LEONID VOLKOV, Navalny’s chief of staff, made the same announcement via Telegram.

“Alexei Navalny was transported away from the penal colony No. 2. His lawyer, who came to see him, was kept at the checkpoint until 14.00, and was then told: ‘There is no such convict here,’” Yarmysh tweeted. “We do not know where Alexei is now and what colony they are taking him to.”

Yarmysh added that neither Navalny’s “attorneys nor his relatives were informed about his transfer in advance. There were rumors that he was going to be transferred to the high-security penal colony IK-6 ‘Melekhovo,’ but it is impossible to know when, and if, he will actually arrive there.”

Navalny most recently was sentenced in March to another nine years in prison on fraud charges. He initially was detained in February 2021 after returning from Germany, where he had been recovering from being poisoned with a nerve agent — an attack he attributed to the Kremlin.

WHO TO MEET ON MONKEYPOX SPREAD: TEDROS ADHANOM GHEBREYESUS, director-general of the World Health Organization, announced today that the United Nations agency will convene its emergency committee next week to assess whether the increase in unusual monkeypox cases represents a public health emergency of international concern, per POLITICO Europe’s HELEN COLLIS.

Tedros said the committee is now able to consider the classification because three key measures have been met: The virus behaving unusually compared with in the past; more countries are now affected by these unusual cases; and, therefore, there’s a need for a more coordinated response.

The WHO also is preparing a mechanism for the equitable distribution of vaccines that it has in stock. So far this year, more than 1,600 confirmed cases and almost 1,500 suspected cases of monkeypox have been reported to the organization from 39 countries, including seven countries where monkeypox is endemic and 32 newly affected countries.

IRANIAN HACKERS SUSPECTED IN PHISHING SCAM: Check Point Software Technologies Ltd., an Israeli cybersecurity firm, published new research today accusing Iranian hackers of targeting the email accounts of former Israeli and American officials, per Bloomberg’s WILLIAM TURTON.

The hackers allegedly targeted TZIPI LIVNI, a former minister of justice and minister of foreign affairs, as well as an unnamed former Israeli military official and a former U.S. ambassador to Israel. “The operation implements a very targeted phishing chain that is specifically crafted for each target,” said SERGEY SHYKEVICH, Check Point’s threat intelligence group manager.

Check Point specifically blamed an Iranian hacking group known as Phosphorus for the attack. Microsoft previously accused the same group of targeting accounts associated with a U.S. presidential campaign in 2019.

AIR FORCE CLEARS C-17 CREW: The U.S. Air Force concluded Monday that the crew of a C-17 military transport plane made the right call to take off from Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, last August despite desperate civilians rushing the tarmac, per our own ORIANA PAWLYK.

The service found that the crew “acted appropriately and exercised sound judgment in their decision to get airborne as quickly as possible when faced with an unprecedented and rapidly deteriorating security situation” in Afghanistan, Air Force spokesperson ANN STEFANEK said in a statement. She added that the crew members’ “airmanship and quick thinking ensured the safety of the crew and their aircraft.”

After the plane landed at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, human remains were discovered in the wheel well of the aircraft. The Air Force then tasked its Office of Special Investigations to look into the episode.

Other military offices conducted their own inquiries, including staff judge advocate offices within Air Mobility Command and U.S. Central Command. Both commands “rendered concurring opinions that the aircrew was in compliance with applicable rules of engagement specific to the event and the overall law of armed conflict,” Stefanek said.

RIDING WITH BIDEN’S BUDGET: House Democrats have begun rolling out their annual government funding bills — including a pair of Pentagon funding measures — and so far, the Appropriations Committee isn’t straying far from Biden’s military spending proposal.

Sticking to the administration’s budget is a likely red line for House Republicans, who are clamoring for tens of billions of dollars more than the $813 billion national defense request Biden submitted, arguing inflation will eat away at the Pentagon budget.

House and Senate Appropriations Committee leaders are in talks for a deal that would set funding levels for defense and domestic sides of the ledger, but they haven’t yet struck a bargain.

Fiscal 2023 defense appropriations legislation rolled out today would provide roughly $762 billion for the bulk of the Pentagon budget, which House Appropriations describes as “in line” with the budget request.

Rep. BETTY MCCOLLUM (D-Minn.), who chairs the Defense Appropriations subcommittee, called the bill “a responsible investment in our national security that will keep our nation strong and the American people safe.”

So what are appropriators funding? The defense spending bill includes $27.8 billion for the Navy to procure eight new ships and $7.2 billion to meet the Pentagon’s request for 61 F-35 fighters. Appropriators are funding 18 F-15EX fighters, six fewer than the Air Force requested.

The bill includes $300 million for the Pentagon’s Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.

And with a looming Supreme Court ruling that could overturn the Roe v. Wade decision, Democrats included a provision that aims to prohibit denying leave to troops or civilian employees who request it to obtain an abortion or assist a spouse or partner in obtaining an abortion.

Separate legislation that deals with military construction and veterans programs was unveiled this afternoon that includes $15.1 billion for defense infrastructure projects, $2.9 billion more than the Pentagon requested.

What’s next: Both bills receive subcommittee markups Wednesday. The vote on the defense bill will be held in a closed session.

HFAC GOP CONDEMNS CLOSED-DOOR AFGHANISTAN BRIEFING: Republican lawmakers on the House Foreign Affairs Committee unanimously condemned the decision to close Wednesday’s briefing on Afghanistan to the public, calling for more transparency on the now 10-month-old evacuation.

The committee’s majority decided to hold the hearing behind closed doors and classify its question-and-answer session although the State Department offered to have a portion of the hearing unclassified, according to a statement sent to POLITICO.

The minority condemned that the panel has only had one open, full committee hearing to date on the topic with a Biden administration official.

“Holding a closed briefing where the question-and-answer portion is classified at the highest level — even though the vast majority of the information sought should not be classified — is not the transparency the American people deserve,” the statement read.

WATCHDOG WHACKS EX-FBI OFFICIAL: A review by Justice Department Inspector General MICHAEL HOROWITZ found that MICHAEL STEINBACH, the former executive assistant director of the FBI’s National Security Bureau, violated bureau policy by having “extensive contacts” with the news media, per our own JOSH GERSTEIN.

Steinbach oversaw the FBI’s politically sensitive investigations in 2016 into HILLARY CLINTON’s use of a private email server and DONALD TRUMP’s ties to Russia. Horowitz’s review of Steinbach’s conduct was released in 2018, and an investigative summary was issued last year. The IG report was made public Monday.

The report doesn’t accuse Steinbach of unauthorized disclosures to the media, but Horowitz’s office has expressed concerns that extensive, unsupervised contacts between FBI officials and the media can lead to such leaks and make them harder to investigate.

The report, which examined the FBI’s actions during the 2016 presidential election, also found that the bureau’s policy on media contacts was being “widely ignored” and stated that violations of the policy appeared to emanate from a “cultural attitude.”

— JAYA BALOO and JOE CHEN have been elected to the board of directors of the Cyber Threat Alliance. Baloo is chief information security officer at Avast, and Chen is vice president of engineering at the Symantec Enterprise Division of Broadcom.

— APRIL FALCON DOSS has been appointed general counsel of the National Security Agency. She most recently served as executive director of the Georgetown University Law Center’s Institute for Technology Law and Policy.

— DANIEL B. SHAPIRO and MARK DUBOWITZ, POLITICO Magazine: “Opinion: Biden’s Saudi Arabia Opportunity”

— JENNY STRASBURG and JOE WALLACE, photographs by SERHII KOROVAYNY, The Wall Street Journal: “Ukraine’s State Energy Company Keeps Russian Gas Flowing as War Rages”

— ALEX HORTON, The Washington Post: “For Ukrainian Troops, a Need Arises: Javelin Customer Service”

— Defense Secretary Austin presides over a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels.

— Agriculture Secretary TOM VILSACK travels to U.N. headquarters in New York City for meetings on addressing global food insecurity.

— The Atlantic Council, 2:30 a.m.: “7th Annual Central and Eastern European Energy Security Conference — with VÁCLAV BARTUŠKA, RANDOLPH BELL, DAN BROUILLETTE, NEIL BROWN, WESLEY CLARK and more”

— The National Defense Industrial Association, 8 a.m.: “2022 Human Systems Conference — with RACHEL CHAMPOUX, MARK DERRISO, DAVID HONEY, PATRICK MASON, KENDY VIERLING and more”

— The American University’s Tech, Law and Security Program, 8:30 a.m.: “The Evolving Face of Cyber Conflict and International Law: A Futurespective — with MICHAEL ADAMS, MARIANA SALAZAR ALBORNOZ, RONALD ALCALA, CATHERINE AMIRFAR, KARINE BANNELIER and more”

— The Department of Veterans Affairs, 8:30 a.m.: “Meeting of the Advisory Committee on Cemeteries and Memorials”

— Federal Computer Week, 8:30 a.m.: “DoD Cloud: An Evolving Strategy — with WYN ELDER, PATRICK MASON, PATRICK PERRY, TROY SCHNEIDER, SHARON WOODS and more”

— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 9 a.m.: “Closed Briefing: The Evolution of U.S. Policy Toward Afghanistan From 2017 Through August 2021 — with JOHN BASS, DEREK CHOLLET, BRIAN MCKEON, MOLLY PHEE and THOMAS WEST”

— The Stimson Center, 9 a.m.: “Lethal and Effective: Marine Corps Force Design 2030 and U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation — with ERIC M. SMITH and YUKI TATSUMI”

— House Appropriations Committee, 9:30 a.m.: “Subcommittee Markup: Fiscal Year 2023 Defense Subcommittee Appropriations Bill”

— House Veterans’ Affairs Committee, 9:30 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Reviewing President Biden’s Strategy to Reduce Veteran Suicide by Addressing Economic Risk Factors — with NICK ARMSTRONG, PEGGY BAILEY, SUSAN L. BLACK, JUDY CLAUSEN, EMILY DEVITO and more”

— Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: “Full Committee Markup: The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023”

— The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: “Allied Resolve: NATO Perspectives on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine — with JENNIFER GRIFFIN, ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN, GEORGE ROBERTSON, JAAP DE HOOP SCHEFFER and JAVIER SOLANA”

— The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: “The War Against Terrorism and Organized Crime: Is Peace Possible? — with RACHEL KLEINFELD, ORNELLA MODERAN, JORDAN STREET and ABIGAIL WATSON”

— The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 10 a.m.: “Deterrence and Defense in the Baltic Region: New Realities — with CHRIS BASSLER, THOMAS G. MAHNKEN, KRISTJAN PRIKK, KUSTI SALM, JAN VAN TOL and more”

— House Homeland Security Committee, 10 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Current Status of ISIS and Al Qaeda — with TIMOTHY LANGAN, DAMON STEVENS and SAMANTHA VINOGRAD”

— House Intelligence Committee, 10 a.m.: “Closed Hearing: Central Intelligence Agency Budget”

— The Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States, 10 a.m.: “Hearing”

— Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10:30 a.m.: “Closed Briefing: Update on Iran’s Nuclear Program and U.S. Strategy — with ROBERT MALLEY and BRETT MCGURK”

— The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: “The Ambassadors Series: A Conversation with Swedish Ambassador KARIN OLOFSDOTTER — with MICHAEL DORAN”

— The Atlantic Council, 12:30 p.m.: “Missing Key: The Challenge of Cybersecurity and Central Bank Digital Currency — with GIULIA FANTI, CAROLE HOUSE, JOSH LIPSKY, MICHAEL MOSIER and NEHA NARULA”

— The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1 p.m.: “Carnegie Connects: America and the World With DAVID PETRAEUS — with AARON DAVID MILLER”

— House Appropriations Committee, 1 p.m.: “Subcommittee Markup: Fiscal Year 2023 Military Construction, Veterans Affairs and Related Agencies Subcommittee Bill”

— Senate Intelligence Committee, 2:30 p.m: “Closed Briefing: Intelligence Matters”

— Politics and Prose, 7 p.m.: “Degrade and Destroy: The Inside Story of the War Against the Islamic State, from BARACK OBAMA to DONALD TRUMP — with MICHAEL R. GORDON”

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at [email protected] or [email protected] to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, the “Gray Eagle” of the POLITICO newsroom.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Lockheed Martin, helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating digital transformation.

At Lockheed Martin digital transformation means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins, industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more.