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China is building a sprawling network of what appears to be intercontinental missile silos in its western desert that analysts say could change the equation for US military planners in Asia.

The probable missile field, which includes 120 silos that could potentially house weapons that could reach the mainland of the United States, was determined by researchers at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies using satellite imagery from commercial satellite company Planet Labs Inc.

The researchers compared satellite photos taken in the past four months with images taken last week and found the missile site, which covers a grid of hundreds of square kilometers in Gansu Province, China, said researcher Jeffrey Lewis, a Chinese nuclear weapons expert who examined the images with colleague Decker Evelet, who was the first to discover the silos.

The couple’s findings were first published in the Washington Post.

Lewis told CNN on Friday that most of the unfinished silo construction likely took place in the past six months.

“It is really an amazing pace of construction,” he said, adding that the scope of the construction was also surprising.

“It’s a lot of silos,” said Lewis. “It’s a lot bigger than anything we expected.”

Reports of the likely new missile field came just a day before Chinese leader Xi Jinping gave a nationalist speech on 100 foreign countries.

“Anyone who dares to try will have their heads pounded bloodily against a large steel wall forged by over 1.4 billion Chinese,” Xi added in comments that were later tempered in the government’s own English translation.

New protection for China’s ICBMs

Although researchers have identified 120 likely silos, there is no evidence that they are in use or will be used in the future. However, analysts said the silos, arranged in a grid pattern at 3 kilometers (1.9 miles) apart, could be used to house China-made DF-41 ICBMs.

The DF-41, also known as the CSS-X-20, is estimated to have a range of 12,000 to 15,000 kilometers (7,400 to 9,300 miles) and could be equipped with up to 10 independently targeted nuclear warheads, according to Missile Threat’s project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“It is predicted to hit the continental United States in 30 minutes,” the project website said.

China first showed the DF-41 on mobile launch vehicles in 2019, but its actual use has not been confirmed.

“The relative merits of mobile and silo-based ICBMs after the end of the Cold War have been widely discussed; Put simply, mobile systems are easier to hide and disperse, but more vulnerable when found, while silos are increasingly difficult to hide but harder to disable or destroy, “said Henry Boyd, research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

“If the PLA (China’s People’s Liberation Army) has decided to invest in a large number of new silos for their ICBMs, it could indicate a rethink in Beijing on the matter,” Boyd said.

Timothy Heath, Senior International Defense Researcher at RAND Corporation, a US-based not-for-profit think tank, said the development shows Beijing is serious about stepping up its nuclear deterrent – the idea that it could withstand a nuclear first strike by an adversary and still have nuclear weapons left that could inflict unacceptable losses on the adversary.

“Prior to this development, the US military may consider using nuclear weapons in a war near China to destroy large numbers of PLA troops and equipment,” said Heath. “Building 120 or more silos makes such a pre-emptive strike much more difficult as the US would now have to target all silos and mobile launch vehicles.”

“In short, China is trying to raise the risk of using nuclear weapons in an emergency near China to unbearably high levels,” he said.

China does not usually comment on sensitive military matters, but an editorial published Friday in the state-run Global Times confirmed Western reports on the silo construction but stated that it was not in China’s strategic interest to mention their validity.

The editorial, titled “China’s Nuclear Deterrent Can’t Be Restricted by the US,” also advocated that China should step up its nuclear deterrence in the face of so-called “US military pressure on China,” noting that the US “at least “450 silos.”

“As soon as a military confrontation breaks out between China and the US over the Taiwan issue, China will serve as the basis for China’s national will if China has enough nuclear capacity to deter the US,” the editorial said.

In January, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying reiterated China’s pledge not to use nuclear weapons unless attacked “at any time and under any circumstances” and promised not to use or with the use of nuclear weapons threatening states without nuclear weapons. ”

In response to a question about China’s position on the United Nations Treaty on Nuclear Weapons, which Beijing does not recognize, Hua claimed that China’s nuclear forces are always kept at the minimum level it considers necessary to ensure national security. “That is the consistent basic policy of the Chinese government,” said Hua.

“At the same time, China believes that nuclear disarmament must not lose sight of the reality of the international security landscape. According to the principle of maintaining global strategic stability and undiminished security for all, progress should be sought step by step, ”added Hua.

US officials say report points to China’s rising power

US officials said the satellite imagery confirms assessments made in the Department of Defense’s China Military Power Report last year and repeated since then.

“Numerous Defense Department leaders have testified and spoken publicly about China’s growing nuclear capabilities, which we expect to double in the next decade or more,” said Pentagon spokesman John Supple.

U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price described the apparent buildup as worrying and noted that it raised questions about China’s intentions. “For us, this underscores the importance of practical measures to reduce nuclear risks, despite the apparent concealment of the PRC,” said Price, referring to China by its formal acronym, the People’s Republic of China.

“This rapid build-up is harder to hide and shows how the PRC seems to be deviating again from a decades-long nuclear strategy based on minimal deterrence,” he said during a Foreign Ministry briefing Thursday.

Analysts point out that China has only about 350 total nuclear weapons, a fraction of the 5,550 warheads in the US nuclear arsenal. China’s nuclear weapons are distributed among mobile land launchers, a small fleet of ballistic missile submarines, and its nuclear-capable bombers.

So it is unlikely that all of the 120 alleged new silos would get an ICBM with a nuclear warhead.

Rather, China could play a “shell game” with the rockets, the analysts said, and active rockets move randomly between the silos.

Lewis, the Chinese nuclear weapons expert, said that since the silos are three kilometers apart, each would have to be targeted with an opponent’s weapon to ensure the destruction of the missile inside. But the missile doctrine says that each silo would have to be sighted twice to ensure its destruction, he said.

Heath of RAND Corporation said the new missile field, which increases China’s ability to withstand a nuclear attack and retaliate, could have an impact on US allies and partners in Asia that have found shelter under the US nuclear umbrella.

“The possibility of escalation is now getting much more dangerous,” he said.

“This raises additional questions about the US’s willingness and ability to meet its security commitments to allies and partners in Asia. The US must develop missile defense or other ways to contain this threat if it is to maintain the credibility of its alliance commitments in Asia, ”said Heath.

The CNN Wire
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CNN’s Jennifer Hansler, Christian Sierra, Oren Liebermann and Yong Xiong contributed to this report.

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