Despite the EU’s reduction of its energy dependence on Russia, there is work to be done in the long term. To achieve autonomy from Russian energy, the Union could learn from the experience of one of its members, Lithuania – a country which, since declaring its independence from the USSR in 1990, has been able to adapt to a complex geopolitical context to ensure its energy security.
The Lithuanian case has three major lessons.
Lesson 1: Don’t give up nuclear power
Lithuania’s path to energy independence has not been easy.
Before its accession to the EU on May 1, 2004, nuclear power was the mainstay of its energy mix, with Vilnius relying on it for 77% of its electricity. The country nevertheless had to shut down two of the reactors of its Ignalina nuclear power plant as a precondition for joining the Union, due to their base on the same outdated technology as Chernobyl.
Nuclear power was subsequently replaced by Russian natural gas and oil. In 2011, these two sources made up 75% of the national energy mix (the rest came from coal, oil products, hydro, and biomass). The country, therefore, deeply dependent on hydrocarbon imports from Russia.
Faced with the same dilemma of European dependence on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, Germany decided in October to keep its three remaining nuclear power plants in operation at least until 2023. In Poland and the Netherlands, decisions were taken to build three and two new ones nuclear power plants, respectively. The two countries also boast two nuclear reactors exclusively dedicated to research, Maria (30 MW capacity) and Borssele (482 MW capacity). France, which has historically banked on atomic energy, has also embraced nuclear’s comeback, after President Emmanuel Macron pushed a bill in November relaxing planning regulations for the construction of nuclear reactors. At present, nuclear power generates 25% of Europe’s electricity, and the share of nuclear is expected to decrease to 12-15% by 2050 despite these plans. This is because many old reactors are due to close, and most new ones are planned outside Europe.
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