With suspected assistance from Russia, Iran is seeking to rebuild its nuclear weapon supply, which may be in serious breach of nuclear proliferation safeguards such as the 2015 nuclear arrangement.
According to recent US intelligence reports, Iran is looking to Russia to help rebuild its nuclear programme, in exchange for drones and missiles that would fuel the war in Ukraine.
The 2015 nuclear arrangement, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was signed by several world powers – including the United States and the United Kingdom. After Iran’s years of efforts to develop nuclear weapons, the JCPOA placed significant restrictions on the country’s nuclear activity.
When the US abandoned the agreement in 2019, Iran began to rebuild its supply of nuclear weapons and is now suspected to be in collaboration with Russia to acquire materials needed for bombs.
The Innovation Platform takes a look at the history of nuclear proliferation and how world powers may be breaking treaty conditions by aiding or seeking advanced nuclear programmes.
What is nuclear proliferation?
Nuclear proliferation includes the spread of nuclear weapons, technology, or fissile material to nations not recognized as ‘Nuclear Weapon States’ (NWS) by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
Under the treaty, five nations are considered NWS: the US, Russia, the UK, France, and China. India, Pakistan, and North Korea have also conducted overt nuclear tests, but are not part of the treaty.
Early government efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation began soon after the Second World War. Historically, nuclear weapons date back to the war when two nuclear bombs – made from uranium-235 and plutonium-239 – were dropped on Japan’s Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. These technological advances brought the long war to an abrupt end, demonstrating the previously unimaginable power of nuclear weapons.
Soon after, efforts such as the Baruch Plan, in which the US agreed to decommission all of its atomic weapons, were launched by world powers to promote nuclear non-proliferation.
Since then, NWS have rebuilt their nuclear weapons programs, which has attracted much debate and controversy over the years.
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
The NPT is an international treaty that came into effect in 1970 and was ratified by 62 original countries (all NATO members). By 2020, the number of participating countries had grown to 190. The UK Government says that it “aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and technology, promote co-operation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and pursue negotiations on disarmament measures. “1
The Treaty has three sections, referred to as pillars, which are:
- Pillar I: Nuclear disarmament: All states which have signed and ratified the Treaty are obliged to pursue negotiations on disarmament measures;
- Pillar II: Non-proliferation: This means making sure that states who are not recognized under the Treaty, or who do not possess weapons, do not acquire them. This measure also ensures that the five NWS are complying with the Treaty; other
- Pillar III: Peaceful uses of nuclear technology: This promotes co-operation between states to share the beliefs of peaceful uses of nuclear technology, while making sure it cannot be used for weapons.
In 1995, the NPT was extended indefinitely. Its scope was widened to include the monitoring of undisclosed nuclear activities.
Iran was one of the original signatories of the Treaty back in 1970. As a non-NWS, the country was banned from acquiring nuclear weapons under the conditions of the Treaty. By 1974, Iran had also signed the NPT’s Safeguards Agreement, which allowed inspections to verify that nuclear enrichment used for energy is not diverted to nuclear weapons or other explosive nuclear devices.
Iran’s nuclear program in the early 2000s
In the early 2000s, Iran’s began reinstating its quest for nuclear weapons, and its nuclear program was very different from its commitment in 1970. Ongoing scientific efforts to research nuclear technology began to make nuclear weapons. The country acquired several research sites, two uranium mines, a research reactor, and uranium processing facilities that include three uranium enrichment plants.
According to Business Insider, it is estimated that the program may have cost Iran over $500bn.2
In the early 2000s, the world’s discovery of Iran’s uranium enrichment program raised concerns among other nations that it was being used for non-peaceful purposes. If so, Iran would have been breaking the nuclear proliferation safeguards of the NPT. This leaves unanswered questions about how nuclear power generation contributes to nuclear weapon risks.
Due to this, investigations were launched in 2003, and by 2006, the United Nations Security Council stated that Iran must suspend its programme.
The Iran Nuclear Arrangement (JCPOA)
The JCPOA was signed in 2015 by Iran and world superpowers, such as China, France, Russia, the US, and the UK. Under this agreement, Iran agreed to dismantle its current nuclear programme, as well as open its facilities to more extensive international inspections. In doing so, the country saved itself from billions of dollars’ worth of sanctions relief and upkept its former nuclear proliferation commitments.
In July 2015, Iran had two uranium enrichment plants, Natanz and Fordo, and was operating almost 20,000 centrifuges – machines which spin at supersonic speeds. Under the JCPOA, the country was limited to installing no more than 5,060 of the oldest and least efficient centrifuges at Natanz until 2026.
Moreover, Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was reduced by 98% to 300kg, a figure which must not be exceeded until 2031. Additionally, it must keep the stockpile’s level of enrichment at 3.67%.
© iStock/JacobH
Sanctions previously imposed by the United Nations, US, and European Union crippled Iran’s economy, costing the country more than £119bn ($160bn) in oil revenue from 2012-2016. However, due to the deal, all nuclear-related sanctions on Iran were lifted and the country was able to resume selling oil on international markets. It also gained access to more than $100bn in assets frozen overseas.
At the time, Iran agreed to these nuclear restrictions, which meant the country could not produce highly-enriched uranium or plutonium that could be used to make a nuclear weapon. Iran also ensured that its Fordow, Natanz, and Arak facilities pursued only civilian work, including medical and industrial research.
After former US President, Donald Trump, abandoned the agreement in 2019, Iran began breaching its commitment to nuclear proliferation safeguards. By November 2021, the country had amassed a stockpile of enriched uranium that was much more than permitted. The stockpile included at least 17.7kg of material enriched to 60% purity, which was just below the level needed to produce a nuclear bomb.
Therefore, evidence shows that Iran is currently in clear breach of nuclear proliferation efforts.
Is Russia helping Iran with its current nuclear programme?
Fast forward to today, and Iran has abandoned nearly all of its commitments to nuclear proliferation. However, Russia, which is one of the original participants of the NPT and a recognized NWS, is suspected of helping Iran in its quest to build-up a supply of nuclear weapons.
During 2021, Russia was a key player in nuclear deal talks with the US, and also mediated several deals that granted the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) permission to monitor Iranian nuclear sites. However, due to the war in Ukraine, it has become increasingly difficult for the US and Russia to reach a compromise, with relations between the two world powers turning sour.
In June this year, Russia opposed the IAEA inspections. Shortly after, satellite images were shown of alleged Russian examinations of Iranian combat drones. Russia ended up acquiring these drones, and they are now being used in the Ukraine war.
According to a recent report by CNN, Iran is seeking help from Russia in exchange for providing drones and missiles. They reported: “Iran is seeking Russia’s help to bolster its nuclear programme, US intelligence officials believe, as Tehran looks for a backup plan should a lasting nuclear deal with world powers fail to materialise.”3
Although Iran maintains the stance that it has ended its nuclear weapons programme, the country is believed to be seeking Moscow’s help in acquiring additional nuclear materials, as well as for nuclear fuel fabrication. The fuel would enable Iran to produce a nuclear reactor to cut the time it would take to produce a nuclear weapon.
Inside detail of a nuclear reactor © iStock/XH4D
Additionally, Tehran’s alleged proposal has come amid increasing co-operation between Iran and Russia in recent months, which has seen Tehran sending its suicide drones in support of the Russian war effort in Ukraine. It remains unclear whether Moscow has accepted Tehran’s request.
Considering Russia’s membership in the 2015 nuclear agreement, helping Iran acquire materials for weapons would be in serious breach of nuclear proliferation safeguards.
Can the US’ re-entry into the JCPOA stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons?
The US’ withdrawal from the JCPOA was the catalyst that led to Iran breaking nuclear proliferation conditions. The Iranian nuclear program has advanced dramatically and far beyond what it would have if the country was still observing the limits of the deal.
The Biden administration has expressed a desire to return to the deal. It would require Iran to ship out its excess enriched uranium, maintain less than one bomb’s worth of uranium, end production of the metal, and unplug its advanced centrifuges.
© iStock/ktsimage
However, even if the US were to re-enter the deal, Iran would still be in the position to quickly develop a nuclear bomb by 2030 due to the country’s increased nuclear knowledge. Limits on the Iranian nuclear program lapse at the end of 2030, meaning that a resurrected deal would only deter the threat until then – not end it.
As long as nuclear proliferation safeguards begin to unravel, Iran will draw closer to possessing nuclear weapons. If they do so, other countries may begin to desire a nuclear weapons programme, meaning the conditions of the NPT will unravel.
Amongst war, foreign policy issues, and the debate over nuclear weapons, one thing is certain – world powers have been unable to successfully prevent nuclear proliferation.
References
- https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/nuclear-non-proliferation-treaty-npt
- https://web.archive.org/web/20200216044025/https://www.sfgate.com/technology/businessinsider/article/Iran-s-nuclear-program-has-been-an-astronomical-6359024.php
- https://eurasiantimes.com/drones-for-nukes-russia-is-helping-iran-with-nuclear-weapons-program-in-exchange-for-missiles-uavs-cnn-report/
Please note, this article will also appear in the twelfth edition of our quarterly publication.
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