The Pentagon’s China Military Power Report confirms Beijing’s nuclear ambitions

The Pentagon’s annual report on China’s military capabilities confirms that Beijing’s days of maintaining minimal nuclear deterrence are over.

Along with several other military developments, the report makes it clear that China is on its way to becoming a nuclear peer (or surpassing the United States and Russia) – a state that US nuclear forces are completely unprepared for.

The size and scope of China’s nuclear arsenal has been the subject of public debate, with most of the information continuing to be kept secret.

Last year, the Pentagon reported that China’s nuclear arsenal would double from around 200 warheads by the end of the decade. Disarmament advocates used this statistic to claim that China’s arsenal will remain well below the United States-stationed arsenal of around 1,550 strategic nuclear weapons, so the US can afford to unilaterally reduce its arsenal (although that argument still continues Russia’s nuclear armament ignored).

Other estimates assume that China’s nuclear stocks will more than double, citing the rapid expansion of its nuclear capacities. Admiral Charles Richard, commander of the US Strategic Command, wrote earlier this year that China could “triple or quadruple” its inventory levels by the end of the decade.

This year’s China Military Report confirms that Beijing could have 700 warheads by 2027 and at least 1,000 by the end of the decade. That would be a five-fold increase – even more than Richard’s prediction.

The report also confirms the findings of analysts who used open source information about China’s construction of three new nuclear missile silo fields.

The Department of Defense report said China is building hundreds of new missile silos and is “on the cusp of a large silo.” [intercontinental ballistic missile] Expansion of forces comparable to that of other great powers. “

Some analysts have suggested that many of China’s new missile silos would remain empty. But the Pentagon report seems to confirm that China plans to fill those silos with missiles and crush the notion that Beijing would build but not use silos.

Rather than maintaining the minimum level of nuclear force necessary to ward off attacks, it is clear that Beijing’s nuclear ambitions fit into a larger goal of building a world-class military capable of pursuing its interests through coercion.

Given this information, the US has its hands full ensuring it can deter the advancing Chinese threat. The current stance of the US nuclear forces was drafted back in 2010 for a completely different threat environment, in which China still had a very small nuclear arsenal and Russia was not seen as an opponent.

In other words, the current US nuclear forces are designed to deter only one nuclear threat from one peer nuclear power (Russia), not two.

Just as China has thrown its minimal deterrent position out the window, the US must abandon all proposals to unilaterally reduce its nuclear forces.

Nuclear deterrence requires maintaining the skills necessary to convince an adversary that a nuclear attack is not worth the cost. It also requires convincing opponents that the US have the will to actually use its nuclear weapons.

To show China and the rest of the world that the US is serious about deterring nuclear threats from our adversaries, the Biden administration must consider changes to our troop position to account for the doubling of nuclear rivals – something with which the US has never faced before.

That could mean an increase in warheads, the use of new skills, or other posture adjustments.

In order to convince both our opponents and allies of the determination of the US, the Biden administration should forego rhetoric to reduce the role of US nuclear weapons and to undertake never to use nuclear weapons first in a conflict.

The Pentagon report details why China is the rising threat the US will face for the foreseeable future. Time will tell whether the Biden administration is up to the challenge.

This piece originally appeared in The Daily Signal