The USA and Great Britain promise nuclear submarines for Australia

October 2021
By Julia Masterson

Australia could be the first non-nuclear-armed state to deploy a nuclear submarine as part of a new trilateral security partnership with the United States and Britain known as AUKUS. The initiative was presented at a joint virtual press conference on September 15th.

All three nations stressed that Australia would not acquire nuclear weapons and would honor its commitment to global non-proliferation standards. Even so, the decision by the United States and the UK to equip Australia with nuclear submarines has heightened proliferation concerns as the US and UK submarines are powered by on-board reactors powered by highly enriched uranium (HEU).

The aim of the new trilateral alliance is to ensure “peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific” [region] long-term, ”said US President Joe Biden during the joint appearance at which the initiative was presented on video monitors together with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

“We need to be able to address both the current strategic environment in the region and its evolution because the future of each of our nations, and indeed the world, depends on a free and open Indo-Pacific that will exist and thrive in the region for decades ahead, ”added Biden.

The United States shared nuclear submarine propulsion technology only with Britain, a product of a series of Cold War agreements aimed at countering Soviet influence in Europe.

The British Royal Navy operates three nuclear powered submarine systems: the Vanguard-class ballistic missile submarine and the Astute- and Trafalgar-class attack submarines. Johnson said the AUKUS partnership would “provide a new opportunity to strengthen Britain’s position at the forefront of science and technology and strengthen our national expertise”.

Morrison said Australia will work with Washington and London over the next 18 months to “find the best way to reach a conventionally armed nuclear submarine fleet”. He also said the submarines will be built “in Australia in close collaboration” with the United Kingdom and the United States. The submarines are reportedly being completed in time to be deployed in the 2040s. Early reports suggest Australia could lease U.S. or British nuclear submarines in the meantime, but the details remain unclear.

At a press conference in Canberra on September 16, Morrison stated that “[n]Next generation nuclear submarines will use reactors that do not need to be refueled during the life of the boat. A civil nuclear capacity here in Australia is not required to pursue this new capability. “

A senior Biden government official appeared on September 20 to confirm that the ships are being powered by HEU, as is the case with British and US submarines, when assessing Australia’s eligibility for “HEU responsibility.” commented. It remains unclear who would supply Australia with the fissile material needed to refuel the submarines or whether the nuclear-powered submarines could be provided under a lease agreement.

Another unknown is whether the submarine design will be based on existing US or British attack submarines or an entirely new design. One of the reasons Australia might lease US or UK ships on short notice is because “to give us opportunities to train our sailors, [to] provide the skills and knowledge related to the way we work, ”Australian Defense Secretary Peter Dutton told reporters on September 19, suggesting that the new submarines could be of a similar design.

The AUKUS initiative is not limited to the new submarine project. It will also facilitate information sharing across a range of technology areas, including artificial intelligence, underwater systems, and quantum, cyber and long-range attack capabilities. Morrison said Australia will also upgrade its long-range assault capabilities through the purchase of Tomahawk cruise missiles and extended-range joint air-to-surface stand-off missiles.

The three leaders were careful not to view the new trilateral security initiative in response to concerns about expanding Chinese military capabilities. In February, as part of a growing US focus on prioritizing competition with Beijing, Biden announced a new Department of Defense task force charged with evaluating US military strategy towards China.

Even so, Chinese officials quickly condemned the AUKUS initiative. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said on Sept. 16 that “US, UK and Australian nuclear submarine cooperation is seriously undermining regional peace and stability, intensifying the arms race and undermining international non-proliferation efforts Has.”

China also expressed concern about the proliferation risks posed by the initiative. Lijian warned that “the international community, including Australia’s neighbors, has every reason to question whether Australia is serious about meeting its nuclear non-proliferation obligations.”

Australian, British and US officials have tried to reassure the international community that the initiative does not pose an increased risk of proliferation. A senior Biden government official said on Sept. 15 that “Australia again is not and will not be looking for nuclear weapons. This is about nuclear submarines. ”But they noted the novelty of the circumstance and added:“[T]This is an exception to our policy in many ways. “

Aidan Liddle, the British Ambassador to the Disarmament Conference in Geneva, told Arms Control Today in an email on September 21: “[a]All three participants are fully committed to the [nuclear] Non-Proliferation Treaty [NPT] and have a long track record of maintaining and strengthening the global regime to combat proliferation. “

“We have with that. spoken [International Atomic Energy Agency] director[-]Generally speaking, and we will stay in close contact with the IAEA as we investigate the safety implications of the program during the next phase of work, ”said Liddle. He added, “[W]We will ensure that we meet our international obligations and have absolute confidence that no HEU will be diverted for weapons purposes. “

Most non-proliferation experts, however, say the concern doesn’t necessarily have to do with Australia’s intentions, but rather with the precedent the nuclear-powered submarine sharing program would set. Although Australia’s new submarines would be conventionally armed, they would clearly be used for military purposes and allegedly use HEU, which can also be used for nuclear weapons.

Washington has nuclear cooperation agreements with many non-nuclear-armed states for the exchange and transfer of civilian nuclear material, equipment and technology for peaceful purposes. But military-relevant naval nuclear technology transfers are not covered by these agreements, including the US-Australian Agreement on Nuclear Cooperation, which was signed in 2010.

In a September 21 letter to the editor published in the New York Times, Rose Gottemoeller, former US Undersecretary for Arms Control and International Security, criticized the proposal to share HEU-powered submarines with Australia. The proposal, she wrote, “blew up 60 years of US policy” to minimize HEU use. “Such uranium makes atomic bombs, and we never wanted to put it in the hands of non-nuclear-weapon states, no matter how squeaky clean,” she said.

It wasn’t until May 2021 that Britain and the United States announced that they wanted to “revive” efforts to minimize HEU use, according to the official statement that set the goals of the G7’s global partnership against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. (See ACT June 2021.) Reducing the production and use of HEU “has widespread support but requires more solid political support,” the statement said.

High-ranking officials in the Biden administration have described the Australia decision as a “one-off,” implying that similar agreements would not be made with other US allies.

Despite the support of the new initiative among the three capitals, there is a risk that the AUKUS partnership will undermine US and UK relations with allies, particularly France. Australia joined the nuclear submarine purchase program after abandoning a $ 66 billion deal with France to build 12 conventionally powered submarines. The negotiations to establish the AUKUS initiative took place in secret for six months, and the French were not privy to these discussions.

In her September 21 letter to the editorial staff, Gottemoeller criticized the submarine’s lack of “strategic imagination”, noting that “what we needed was a triangular billiards shot – pan to Asia, yes, but keep our European allies on board. ”

“I propose to bring the French to the table,” concluded Gottemoeller, who was also Deputy Secretary General of NATO from 2016 to 2019. The French use low-grade fuel for their marine propulsion, which if shared with Australia would pose a dramatically lower risk of proliferation than HEU, she wrote.

After the AUKUS announcement, Paris called back its ambassadors from the USA and Australia. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drain and Defense Minister Florence Parley said in a joint statement that “the American decision to exclude a European ally and partner like France from a structuring partnership with Australia at a time when we are facing unprecedented challenges the Indo-Pacific region, be it in terms of our values ​​or in terms of respect for the rule of law multilateralism, shows a lack of coherence that France can only recognize and regret. “

Paris also canceled the Franco-British Defense Minister’s summit planned for the week of September 20th.

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